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Jeebus fupping motherhumping kriste, this season New Cork Cosmos have failed and with it my technological allies – this week’s podcast seems to be refusing to transfer of my phone, and my computer crashed twice so this is awful – apologies for those who have been waiting F5ing your screen (more of which later).

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 34

As I said it on the podcast that you might never hear, in GM34 I managed to at least get one point more than the gameweek number, yes Sherlock I got 35 points

WHAT’S THE POINTS?

Points scored last week - 35 Points

Average points scored in that week - 55 points

Points off the top - 381 points, no change

Points off 42^nd position - 74 points

Position in BOTNB League - 64th

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Oh nothing, going by my rule that 5 points is a good return, so the team on average only got a shade over 3 points, and only 3 players only got over that 5 point mark. Any people out there who like to do quick calculation that mean a lot of the players only got 2 points or less.

WHAT WENT NOT RIGHT

Not only was that a bad return, my fecking bench got 24 points which was an average of 6 points, which yes mean they all did, my definition, of good.

CLUTCHING AT STRAWS

I can’t do much worse… right?…RIGHT?

LAST WEEK’S TEAM

TRANSFERS

I’ve got two transfers to play, we discussed at length on the Phantom Podcast and Darragh berated me for this idea and I agreed to not do it BUT I’M GOING TO DO IT ANYWAY, fupp you authority. I’m going with the hunch that Everton are running out of steam, so Miralles is gone now and alongside him trading in their (frankly relaly well designed) NCC tracksuits is another striker, Berbatov, from another listlist club Fulham.

In comes Tevez (doublegame week in 36 planning) and….. Rodriguez from Southampton, I know I might be missing the boat with this port town based striker.

KEEPING AN EYE ON

My eyes are off the ball, (pun intended after the fact), probably Defoe and possibly also Lennon – taking a 4 point hit on a double gameweek player is usually worth it.

THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

I've on injured defender (shaw), and I'll drop Rafael who might not even play (Smalling on comeback), and I'm putting Santi on the bench as 13th man but I wonder if I will swap him for Ben Arfa later.

MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

Fellani for now, but possibly will switch to Tevez in a few hours.

CAPTAIN’S CORNER with @darraghFPL

Eh, not sure if we can chalk last week’s choices up as a success, can we? With van Persie accounting for a ‘zeer groot’ 63% of my Captain’s choices score, it appears the radical Andy Carroll experiment has failed. Elsewhere, fantasy behemoths such as Juan Mata and Gareth Bale showed how much we missed them the past few weeks and nostalgia even got a run out as Kevin Nolan and Clint Dempsey hit double figures for the first time since the 1992/93 season. Oh, and hope all you degenerate gamblers threw a tenner on a Swansea – Southampton nil-all. Feel free to lump more on another game I predict to be ‘overflowing’ with goals this week.

But having said that, Wigan v Tottenham *has* to be oozing fantasy points returns right? Gareth Bale is clearly the front runner in this fixture. I mean, all he’s done is bang out 82 points in his last 7 away trips (11.7 points per game). His ICT threat rating of 14.1 was top for any midfielder last week besides…..eh…..Robert Snodgrass (I knew he was a solid choice) with 14.1 compared to the Scotsman’s 18.6. We know he likes the odd shot here and there as well, but it is positively flabbergasting how often he shoots. His 136 attempts on goal this season is 33 clear of his closest rival, Santi Cazorla. That may not seem like a huge amount initially, but then it becomes apparent that Cazorla has played 494 minutes of football more than the PFA Player of the Year elect (They’ll hardly give to Hannibal at this stage). What is interesting though is that a substantial amount of these shots are on target, 44.9% to be precise. That’s the highest out any midfielder with more than 50 efforts. Wigan have also managed to concede the 3^rd highest total of goals with 60, 5 behind Reading and 3 behind Aston Villa despite the Latics playing a game less. And yes, I realise this is the second week in a row my first choice is facing Wigan. You may suspect I don’t fancy them to do a ‘Houdini’ this year.

As this season whittles away into a sea of nothingness due to United romping away with the league and the blue and white hoopers firmly sealed in the basement, I’m becoming increasingly concerned by the potential random rotation of those with nothing left to play for. With this in mind, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal all provide a route away from this. Benitez may be less inclined to rotate with a top four finish in touching distance and Basle will put 3 or 4 past them tonight (providing Ronan posts this on the Thursday, ahem) and end their run in the Coca-Cola Carling European Worthington Cup. Juan Mata’s excellent performance last weekend has rekindled my affections for the former Valencia man after we ‘took a break’ for a few weeks. A home tie against the now safe West Ham may be the perfect time to play the Hammers. The spine of West Ham’s defense has been shaky all season long, surrendering the most goal scoring chances through the centre of the pitch all season (170), crikey. Mata should enjoy a large amount of freedom tucked in behind Torres or Ba and look to add his league topping 12 assists this term. He has also created a goal scoring opportunity every 29.7 minutes, a feat only topped by another small Spanish playmaker (25.2 mins) that can’t get in the national team. To put this into perspective, Gerrard, Cazorla, Bale and Hazard create a chance every 35.8, 37.7, 39.4 and 44.7 minutes respectively. It just becomes imperative at this stage to focus on players who have a hunger to win games.

Speaking of hunger (wahey, we all knew it was coming!), Suarez’s little nibble off Ivanovic has opened the door for numerous options up front as a result of his 10 match ban. This despite the fact biting someone’s arm is clearly a sign of endearment in Uruguay. While many are looking to gameweek 36 doubles such as Defore and Kone, I’m eeking towards Manchester City. They may have little to play for, but Tevez and Aguero are the types of players who would take a game of subbuteo to a new level of flicking-based competitiveness. Tevez is definitely the safer option but I can’t help but lean more towards the more talented Aguero. Numbers won’t back me up here and the last time I went with my gut I ended up cracking the face of my Fernando Torres voodoo doll. Granted, he’s been poor this year. 10 goals and 3 assists compared to his 23 goals and 9 assists last season really are a microcosm of how poor City have been. Sunday may prove an anomaly in their season’s climax however as I expect the two Argentines to spearhead the attack as the sub-par of late Dzeko angles for a move away from Eastlands.

Finally RvP has to score against Arsenal at the Emirates. He just has to. And then he’ll do the whole ‘I’m not going to celebrate’ thing and life will go on. And I’ve just noticed that of my four selections thus far, Juan Mata is the cheapest at £9.8 million. Let it never be said I go with the crowd. For a cheapy to finish with, I’m going for Reading’s Pavel Pogbrfsd…..Pavel Pogrennzyc……..Pavel Pogrebnyak. I genuinely had to check that spelling 6 times as I typed. Reading v QPR is a humdinger of a fixture. Thank the TV gods that it’s LIVE and EXCLUSIVE on Sky this Sunday and to be honest, I just need something to root for. Professionalism is overrated anyways…..

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Friday, April 19, 2013

Gameweek 34 Season 2012/2013

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Hey there everybody, I hear that train a coming, rolling round the bend, when will this season ever end… 5 gameweeks time that’s when [yes, I measure time in gameweeks now, not simply ‘weeks’], I will say I’ve enjoyed the Back Of The Net Boy side of things more than the New Cork Cosmos stuff this season. I’d go so far as to play on that well worn complaint about players in the teams in the middle table of the (real) League Table, ie Newcastle and Fulham right now, where people say “the players are already on the beach in their minds”, well that is the case for me. I’ve had more of a jump in my step organising our end of seasons drinks (the only roasting at this one will be the roasted but behind the bar… which does sounds like a bit of an InYourEndo.) than this week’s transfers. Don’t get me wrong I’m not done or given up, just pumelled for 2012/13 and looking forward to next season already.

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 33

Ok well the wildcard was played as were double gameweeks and it was a damp squib. The simple numbers are that my team got an average score of just over 5 points each, and as I say, I consider 5 points the minimum for a player to having had what I’d consider a good week BUT, 9 of my team played twice, so that actually gives my players an average return of just over 3 points per person which is just rubbish. I’ve raised my aim though for rest of season, I’m going to try and get 42^nd position, hitchhikers guide and all that shizzle.

WHAT’S THE POINTS?

Points scored last week - 58 Points

Average points scored in that week - 54 points

Points off the top - 331 points, no change

Points off 42^nd position - 39 points

Position in BOTNB League - 52nd

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Oh look at that wall, is that a crack? Oh I need to give that a lick of paint soon.

WHAT WENT NOT RIGHT

Yes, but will I stick with the same colour?

What is the difference between Magnolia and Eggshell anyway?

(answer Eggshell isn’t that good a movie, booom – a comedy joke from Ronan)

CLUTCHING AT STRAWS

I do like to think I’m am entertainer more than a fantasy football savant, I leave all that to @DarraghFPL , our captain

LAST WEEK’S TEAM

TRANSFERS

I’m going to keep my tinder dry this gameweek, amd save it to have two next week.

KEEPING AN EYE ON

The Spurs bench at this stage, will the bionic Bale make it back sooner than implied. The relegation fighters will really become apparent now, the QPR/Stoke game could have interestign reperucssions; and if I see any game this weekend I’d like it to be Everton visiting Sunderland, there will be a lot of, how you say, passion on display in the Stadium Of Fight ( I trademark that nickname here and now, watch how everyone will be using in on Monday’s Red Top Soccer pull outs).

THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

I’m ironically a bit hamstrung but Bale who isn’t hamstrung himself, I’m sticking with him, and also Santi seems to have a yellow box over his head. So that means my only decisions are really which keeper to use and which player to use as my number 13. So in a bid to shake a few extra points to get to 42^nd, I’m going to Boruc the gloves and Sagna the oversized but warm looking jacket, so I’m putting my eggs in the Southamton defence and Fulham attack.

MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

As I look at the screen Fellani has the armband, but I’m really mulling over Berbatov or even Ben Arfa… I’m not gonna lie, I think I will change it later tonight.

CAPTAIN’S CORNER with @darraghFPL

Blah, these double gameweeks continue to be the bane of my fantasy life. Rotation wasn’t the only frustration last week as ‘surefire’ selections such as Santi Cazorla, Walcott, Fellaini and Suarez all disappointed. Luckily, my increasing man crush on Leighton Baines wasn’t stemmed as the country’s best left back hauled rewards from the usually dry well of clean sheets rather than assists and goals. Moving onto this week, and the captains choices may be a bit more alternative than expected.

My first choice is someone featuring in the choices for the first time this year. His inflated fantasy price tag due to his staggering high priced move from Newcastle to Liverpool has meant that Andy Carroll has been largely unaffordable all season as a third striker. Coupled with his previous paltry returns, his was by in large deemed ‘fantasy kryptonite’. Something has changed in his last six games however. He has been involved in 55.6% of the Hammers goals in that time frame and bagged 4 goals in the process. His 62 penalty area touches is top of the charts for any player, 7 ahead of fantasy incumbent Luis Suarez and 10 ahead of in-vogue Christian Benteke. His ICT threat index rating is fourth among strikers over the last month and a half, behind the afore mentioned Uruguayan, Arouna Kone (??) and Robin van Persie, who I’ll get to later. Wigan may be in their annual reanimation mode highlighted by a spirited display against Man City last night but West Ham have never failed to score in a game at Upton Park that Carroll has started in. Yikers.

One of the advantages about wading through statistics once or twice a week is that you come across numbers here and there that really surprise you. You might have heard of the name Michu throughout the course of this season, but of late the Spaniard has copped a bit of flack for his diminishing returns. I wrote a while back about how the number attempts had not receded, merely his conversion rate of these attempts. Despite scoring in just 3 of his last 12 games, Michu continues to pepper the opposition goal far more than many think. His 23 shots from inside the box over his last 6 games blow every other midfielder out of the water. Bale managed only 16, while strikers such as Suarez, RvP, Giroud and Benteke only managed 22, 20, 17 and 16 respectively. Michu’s goal-conversion rate currently stands at 13.8% for that time frame but his season conversion average is 17.2%. As mentioned in previous blogs, this is a stat that tends to regress or progress to the mean. Look for the Spaniard to creep towards the 15.5% mark for shot conversion over the next to weeks. Average that against his 3.9 attempts inside the box per game and that equates a goal every 130 minutes, indicating the Spaniard has a 70% chance of scoring in the upcoming fixture against Southampton. We all know Football is not mathematics, but sometimes it’s a bit o’ craic to mix the two together.

Speaking of Swansea versus Southampton, the games other talisman, Rickie Lambert, has one statistic that absolutely blew me away this week. Over the past half dozen games, RvP, Bryan Ruiz and Wayne Rooney have all successfully threaded 4 through balls for scoring chances. They all lie joint-second in this category for forwards. Lambert tops the list with 20. That 20 (twenty!) successful through balls. Two weeks ago his striking partner Jay Rodriguez topped my Captain’s Choices as he entered his rich vein of scoring form. It’s easy to see why the young Englishman has begun to flourish as Lamberts 95% pass completion rating in the final third is 6% ahead of his nearest competitor Wayne Rooney. Lambert’s 8 goals away from home this term is also the 4^th highest in the league this term, behind the usual suspects of ________, _____ and ______ (fill in the blanks, I refuse to mention these three again) who all have 12 each. Swansea still may have motivational issues with their post Capital One Cup victory but I foresee goals aplenty at the Liberty Stadium. (The 0-0 draw is available @ 10/1 by the way. It’s like printing money.)

Finally, I’ll give an overdue nod to the back in-form Dutchman who Sir Alex simply refuses to rotate despite United’s title being effectively secured a month ago. The game at Old Trafford could see the young, vastly improving Villa side get spanked back down to earth as their game next week at Villa Park to relegation rivals Sunderland offers a far more plausible route to three points. If RvP starts again, his run of two scoring appearances in a row is sure to continue against a defense that concedes the 2^nd largest amount of scoring chances in the league. It’s time to enjoy the two week vacation from a double game week so best of luck ya’ll and captain carefully.

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Friday, April 12, 2013

Gameweek 33 Season 2012/2013

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Hello there Fantasy-ers, or judging by last gameweek Fantasy-errorers. How bad was that for everyone? @darraghFPL covered mostly in this week’s podcast – all the usual big hitters and considered choices of GM32 failed to pay off. I won’t blame those players, as it’s a much as their parents fault for the way they raised them.

I have never been so off the hunt in my years of playing fantasy football, my worst finish was 481856^th position last season, and a haul of 1721 points in 2006/2007, as things stand I should get over the mark set in my maiden season but the position is another thing.

My personal aim is not to get in the top 500,000 and first page of the Back Of The Net BoyLeague ], which is just so crazy it might just work.

As I will get to later, this is my wildcard week, so here we go as the old song goes...

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 32

Like most people I did worse than I hoped but pretty much the same as everyone else, but I did drop a few spots in the BOTNB league and in the other ones I’m in now… but it’s all about the wildcard….

WHAT’S THE POINTS?

Points scored last week - 30 Points

Average points scored in that week - 32 points

Points off the top - 331 points, 3 points further off the top

Position in BOTNB League - 57th

WHAT WENT RIGHT?

Not much, only 3 players got 4 points or more

WHAT WENT NOT RIGHT?

I’ll go with “everything”.

CLUTCHING AT STRAWS

Ehm…… I have my wildcard to use this week

LAST WEEK’S TEAM

TRANSFERS

Ok, it’s on like Donkey Kong, here we go… let’s go… Okay I’m basically bracing myself for this and the next two/three GM after that, without even looking at the transfer screen yet – I’m going to go with only teams with something to play for (pretty obvious I guess, but well explained and extrapulated by @darraghFPL on this week’s podcast). Obviously the teams that have double game weeks have some extra strength anyway.

So as you can see from the screenshot it’s been unquestionably like Cast’s best album, ‘All Change, [the big question is which is the best song from it, I’ll go with this - you can decide here] for the New Cork Cosmos.

I’ve made 9 selections specifically for this double gameweek, with a hunch on McCarthy at the Ethiad, and Ben Arfa’s continued comeback with a home derby game. Three players were kept/brought in with GM 34 in mind, Bale, Turner & Shaw. I’ve gone against what Darragh said in podcast and decided to go with Rafael.

KEEPING AN EYE ON

Nobody specific

THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

All my double game weekers on the field along, going with the pick the minimum of defenders I need to that makes things very simple – Turner and Shaw on the bench alongside the injured Bale

MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

Right now I am going to go with Fellani, but let’s see if I can sit still on that for the next 14 or so hours.

CAPTAIN’S CORNER with @darraghFPL

Yeeesh, tough week eh! It all started so brightly with Jay Rodriguez bagging a goal and assist against the hapless Reading. From then on however, the heavy hitters stunk out the place as Lowton (1.4% ownership), Rosicky (0.2%) and the afore mentioned Rodriguez were the top scorers in the respective positions. Suarez, Cazorla, RvP and Mata offered little more than a brace of points per player but this will surely be rectified in a bumper filled double gameweek. Oh how I love double gameweeks….

I case you were wondering, yes that was sarcasm. I’m always of the opinion that these should be approached cautiously and over investment often prove costly. A shining example for this week would Manchester United. They’re double contains away trips to Stoke and West Ham. This may look juicy, but with the league sown up its becoming increasingly difficult to predict their starting XI, especially as Hernandez will surely see more game time given the collective sniffing around of Europe’s top clubs. Van Persie armbanders beware.

There are a few double gamers who have tickled my fancy however. If he wasn’t crocked with a thigh strain, I’d be all over Theo Walcott like white on rice. Arsenal’s competitive struggle to finish in the top four indicates that the strongest possible line-up will be fielded when possible and since I can’t take the risk on the polarizing winger, I’m hedging my bets with perennial fantasy frustrator (made that word up) Santi Cazorla. Fans of this blog will no doubt know my previous with the Spaniard. Twice he has topped my Captain’s Choices. Twice he has yielded dose puntos. But I have faith. Over the past six weeks, no midfielder who is active this gameweek has had more attempts on goal with 17 (Michu & Bale have more) and no midfielder at all has had as many successfully threaded through balls as Cazorla (12) with his compatriot David Silva one behind in the same time frame. Furthermore, and this stat is particularly astonishing, but he is a full 21 successful passes clear in the opponents final third than his nearest rival (Sean Moloney!?) with 122 passes. Home ties against Norwich and Everton only wet the appetite further. Third times a charm Santi, I know it.

So think about it, after reading the preceding paragraph, what is the most hypocritical thing I could do regarding my next Captain’s Choice? What’s that you say…. Choose an Everton defender? You betcha! It’s been a while so I feel it’s about time for my obligatory stat-tacular dose of Everton love. And in particular, that man Sylvan Distan. I jest of course, as Leighton Baines continues to add to his plethora of fantasy scoring in the past three fantasy seasons (34 goals & assists). But getting back to this term, his stats continue to underlie his status as the defender to have for this gameweek. So far this season, he has whipped in a monstrous 280 (two hundred and eighty!) crosses. That’s 164 more than his nearest rival Kyle Walker. He has created 98 scoring chances, which once again is a mere 47 more than Kyle Walker who lies in second. He creates a chance every 30 minutes. The only other regularly starting defenders in the game who create a chance per game are Kyle Walker, Glen Johnson and Joes Enrique with a chance created every 54.1, 65.5 and 80.1 minutes respectively. So why has Baines only returned 7 assists and 5 goals this term (that’s top of both categories for defenders by the way)? Well it could be down to Nicola Jelavic having the third lowest chance to goals conversion ratio in the league with 9.2%. The only strikers below him are the Franco Di Santo (8.1%) and, you guessed it, Everton’s own Kevin Miralles (6.7%). The latter of these has begun to hit form however, with 3 goals in his last 4, so perhaps now is the time that the future incumbent England left backs owners reaps the rewards of his continuous fantasy potential.

Finally, I refuse to look beyond Dimital Berbatov again. He may have stung me last week with a two pointer against QPR but an away tie at Villa, who I spoke in lengths about last week, and a home tie against a Chelsea side 3 days after a clearly prioritized FA Cup semi-final tie against Man City have left me full of calm as I’m neigh on positive the Bulgarian won’t burn me twice. Ahem. Elsewhere, Suarez away at Reading has peaked my interest though the suspension tightrope he continues to walk have left me expectant of a 90^th minute yellow card for biting, punching and humping Nicky Shorey. Speaking of feisty South Americans, Aguero’s wundergol against United have firmly placed the Argentinean on my radar. At home to Wigan may seem a futile endeavor given The Latics annual ascension to demi-god status but I just feel City will finish the season with a serious flurry. Their upcoming double gameweek, probably gameweek 36, means Aguero is a tailor made replacement for the Uruguayan should he succumb to his second ban of the year.

This weeks Captains choices Last Weeks Choices:

1. S. Cazorla J. Rodriguez (12pts)
2. L. Baines J. Walters (2pts)

3. D. Berbatov D. Berbatov (2pts)

4. L. Suarez A. Townsend (2pts)

5. S. Aguero L. Suarez (2pts)

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