Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Gameweek 24 Season 2012/2013


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Hello everybody, it’s been a great week here at the Ro Camp, in every sense other than with my actual fantasy team. Our debut podcast had a lot more listens that we hoped for, and since most of the listeners were our readers, I’d like to take the chance now to say thanks very much, if you can help share it and make comments etc, that’d be great.

Also Darragh of Captain’s Corner has joined twitter @darraghFPL so please follow him and myself @backofthenetboy – we’ll do our best to be the best ever.


REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 23

Due to watching the 1000th episode of WWE’s Monday Night Raw last night, I went down a little bit down memory lane when the APA appeared and in keeping with Farooq, all I can say about my returns last week is………. DAMN!

Gameweek 23 was my biggest point haul since way back to Gameweek 1, (I have only got over 60 points five times all season), this has been an embaressement of a season. But even with my huge 81 point haul, all those around (and more importantly above) me did better.

WHAT’S THE POINTS?

Points scored last week                       - 81 Points
Average points scored in that week      - 54 points
Points off the top                                 - 301 points, a further 4 points since christmas.
Position in BOTNB League                - 61st (up 8 places, whoop di do )

Annoyingly, I took our captain’s advice (you can hear our debut podcast at www.podomatic.com/backofthenetboy) and brought in Davies at Swansea, but sure didn’t I only go and put him on my bench. So that 1 defender left on my bench managed to score as much as the other 4 defenders in my squad, that in one move sums up my decision making and luck, which are the two main things you need in FPL.
  
LAST WEEK’S TEAM



THE SECRET OF MY SUCCESS

… the highest scorer of each gameweek in our league is invited to share a few insights into what got them so many points… Gameweek 23’s had two joint highest scorers, both with 99 points (statistic fans out there will remember to be the highest score in GM22 in the BOTNB league too!).  We had varying responses from the two high scorers when asked to contribute to this section, [I wanna flag that if you look at both their XIs, they only had 3 players in common, but both accrued massive scores which does defeat the ‘everyone has the same team now’ argument.]

We had this from Philip Bunney…



Philip’s team




…and this more considered response from Mark McCarthy

The secret to my success this gameweek was keeping faith in my players. Looking back the only transfer I made could have been left until another week as Lampard scored more points than the incoming Michu. Still, I'm happy with my points total and proud to have scored the highest in most of my leagues. Sadly I was more prepared for this double gameweek than the previous one.

I am involved in a few leagues but this year the one that has really amped things up it the newly formed head-to-head one at work. A Facebook group was set up, a total of 6 players committed to the season. Two Irishmen, two Englighmen, a Scotsman and a Dane signed up to a Fantasy Football league...and proceeded to take the almighty piss out of each other!! There have been some epic Saturdays, Super Sundays and the odd midweek miracle. Santi Cazorla scoring a hatrick almost reduced some men to jibbering wrecks as others took pictures of themselves celebrating and posted them online. This was the spawn of 'Team Cazorla'.

Any serious Fantasy Football manager knew of the Arsenal and West Ham double gameweek before the turn of the year. Walcott and Cazorla were added to my squad as soon as they had outscored Newcastle in an entertaining game at The Emirates. It still being December I was happy enough to buy only these two players and to keep an eye on others coming up to the this gameweek.

Then came January and with it the wildcard. Some people still insist I was wrong to not use my wildcard right away. I usually like to wait until the end of January to use my wildcard in case of any 'real life' transfers changing things around. The rearranged Chelsea and Southampton game threw a spanner in the works but having planned this gameweek earier I persisted with my squad, besides I already had Walcott and Cazorla.

In the lead up to the gameweek guys from the league kept insisting I needed to fill my team with Arsenal and West Ham players. I told them I wasn't too keen on some of
the West Ham players and didn't want to tinker with my team too much. My options were limited to West Ham defenders, no chance! Joe Cole and Mark Noble were also looked at but I played it safe and only used my one free transfer.

Fast forward to four grown men in a living room on a school night split into their head-to-head pairings. Each pairing consisting of a member of 'Team Cazorla' playing a member of 'Team Walcott'. I cannot say much more, mostly because of the extreme embarrassment it may cause, but I was glad I made Walcott my captain!

Mark’s team.



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TRANSFERS

It’s getting to a point that I forget sometimes if I heard @DarraghFPL, our captain, says something in conversation or on the podcast, but he did point out that if you end up making a transfer the week after you use your gameweek you’ve done something wrong. With that in mind I won’t be making any changes buuuuuuuut I was going to hold off anyway (for a different reason), I want to have three transfers to play with a minimal points cost for GM25 when the transfer deadline has closed.

THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

This week’s one is pretty simple, Begovic at home to Wigan is more sense than Jaaskelainen away to a relatively resurgent Sunderland, I don’t want to have two West Ham defenders either, so I’ve dropped Tompkins (it was perhaps too short sighted to bring him in for that double Gameweek), I’ve packed my midfield with Lambert as the appointed first sub on. Cameron has a yellow mark so perhaps won’t play, so perhaps Rickyyyyyyyyyyy will step in for him. I brought in Davies this time because “fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again”.

Here’s the screenshot.



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MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

I think Fellaini at home to WBA or Walcott to Liverpool, with the dark horse of Walters at home to Wigan, be assured it will be a midfielder with an element of white in their jersey. Those kinds of ‘enigmatic’ captaincy hunches [which clearly fail] are why we have a pro to make these decisions, it’s time for….

CAPTAIN’S CORNER with @darraghFPL

Bah, who said double gameweeks were fruitless endeavors (well I did, but I digress). Theo, Santi and Lucas all produced double digit returns and the latter even missed the Sunday game due to illness. Elsewhere, David Silva revealed he can actually score as well as assist goals and Liverpool showed that variety is the spice of life with four different goal scorers and assisters. My neck-sticking-out selection of Walcott along with four out of my five selections scoring 5 points or more ensured I had a productive week. Moving on to this week’s fixtures, I’ve a toss up between the plainly obvious (RVP, Mata, Fellaini, Aguero etc) and the sort of obscure left field/wing selections that make Trappatoni look like a youthful sprog.

I’ve sided with the latter of these two options and since I’m wildcarding in the midst of Jim White’s orgasmic exclaims of ‘Transfer deadline day!’ and unknown Sky Sports presenters freezing their proverbial knockers off outside the Britannia, I can afford a one week punt on the unknown. To start off, I’m going for the two strikers who lie at opposite sides of the form spectrum.

I’m opting for Demba Ba as my first choice for gameweek 24.  He may have displaced perennial fantasy pariah Nando Torres but El Nino managed to spank in a late equalizer against Brentford in the FA Cup last weekend, shadowing the potential of rotation on the Senegalese international. I think that the Reading game however, has become (get the cliché police on alert for this) ‘must-win’ for Benitez and Ba paves the clearest route to victory for the Blues. Aside from the stat-tacular Suarez, Ba offers a plethora of bountiful numbers to rest Chelsea hopes upon. He ranks 2nd in goal attempts, 3rd in minutes per chance (Dzeko lies 2nd) and 3rd in goals scored. He faces a Reading side that have conceded the 2nd most goals in the league, one behind Villa, and allowed the most chances in the centre and right of the field, areas that Juan Mata is likely to occupy. Here comes the icing underneath the cherry however. The Royals have also allowed the most shots in the penalty area (248: nearest competitor Sunderland is on 237) and given up the most ‘big chances’* (65: Nearest competitor is Newcastle on 58) thus far in the campaign. Woof.

From a stat starring striker from Senegal to a cringingly crumbling fantasy cast-a-side from Croatia; Nicola Jelavic. Unlike Ba, he has miserly returns to date, offering just one goal and assist in twelve. These sort of bedazzling returns have of course lead to him being my second selection in my captain’s choices this week. Recently, I wrote how if any Everton attacking cover was needed, than the afro styled Belgian path was clearly the way to go. While I maintain this stance, two things have changed; positioning and attempts. Previously Fallaini had dominated these categories but in the Toffee’s last two outings, Jelavic has had 6 attempts to Fellaini’s 4, held an average pitch position up to two pitch quadrants higher and all while playing 28 minutes less. I’m not saying Jelavic is a better long term prospect, but merely offers a differential from the widespread love of the ‘Power 5’ discussed in this weeks podcast.

I just have to have one ol’ reliable in my selections this week however, with the accolade going to trigger happy, dive happy and ear surgery happy Welshman Gareth Bale. His away performances so far this term have clearly outshone his form at White Hart Lane, with seven out his nice goals coming on the road. Furthermore, his has more attempts on goal, more crosses and more final third pitch touches than any other FPL midfielder on opposition soil this season. Coupled with this is Norwich’s recapitulation at the back (11 goals in 4 games) and the obvious emphasis placed by AVB on the Premier League over other cup competitions. Dempsey remains in my one week pot luck mindset although the managers claims that Defoe ‘may start’ have made me veer clear of the Clint.

Moving on to other dubious contenders for this week’s choices, I’ve unearthed a recent piece of fantasy love for the ever malnourished looking Adam Johnson. Years of productive cameo appearances for City against sub par opposition had led me to the opinion that once he bailed from his bench warming activities, he’d walk straight into my fantasy 11 (See also: Kolorov, Aleksander). It seemed initially as if my premonitions of fantasy fruitfulness had been misguided following a move to the North East but of late, the skinny one has seemed to come good. Coming in with four scoring returns in his last five, including two double digiters (made that word up, but I like it), he seems to have found his grove. His allocation to set pieces along with his high success of his dribble completions (44.2%) have coincided nicely with Sunderland’s rediscovery of the opposition’s goal line. Similarly, Duncan Fergus…..I mean Steven Fletcher, offers superb value at just £7.1 million but against a stingy Swansea centre back partnership, I fancy the Black Cats midfield to strike it lucky against the Swans.

Falling into my 5th choice, however dangerously over my weekly ‘punt’ option, is Javier Hernandez. No numbers shall be sprouted for Chicarito’s inclusion. Instead, my gut rumbles that Ferguson fancies resting either RVP or Rooney for the Saints visit to Old Trafford seeing as the face Fulham at the cottage next weekend. This is a high risk, inevitably low reward choice so my words will be salted and vinergered, ready for consumption come next weeks blog. Nom nom….


*‘Big chances’ are an Opta stat where a defense allows a clear cut chance at goal. 

Friday, January 18, 2013

Gameweek 23 Season 2012/2013


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Hey hey hey! So it’s been a productive week here at BOTNB HQ, I feel like Bayern Munich in the sense that we’ve announced and got new plans under way for the future if not immediate term (but I am aware they are still capable of winning all the competitions they are in)…

Basically we have finally started podcasting, we won’t be pushing it massively for 3 or so episodes but to ye the regular followers already you can find it via the www.facebook.com/backofthenetboy facebook page or http://backofthenetboy.podomatic.com/entry/2013-01-17T15_01_10-08_00, I am still learning the ropes of getting it up via iTunes, apparently it takes a few days, so you can subscribe to it as of next time I hope.

Also got a brand new competion up and running, all there on FB page too, called the ‘Spine’… better name needed. But it is really exciting me anyway. Keep tooooooooooned folks, but let’s get back to the case in point…

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 22

Another shi*storm of a gameweek, this time getting substantially less than half of the highest score and about 50% less than the bloody average. The only good point I can find is that I’ve slipped down into 69th position…. in-your-endo


WHAT’S THE POINTS

Points scored last week                       - 40 Points
Average points scored in that week      - 57 points
Points off the top                                 - 297 points, a further 49 points since christmas.
Position in BOTNB League                - 69th (down another 7 places   L x 7 )

My only defence for the omnishambles of last gameweek is my defence, those 3 guys who went out there scored nearly ½ the points the whole team accrued. All my midfielders scored 2 points, seriously like, many midfielders managed to get 8 points on their own. Forwards equally bad, sure you can look at it yourself…

Apparently my Bentenke kicked off some ‘internet banter’ comments on the blog last Friday, but was deleted so perhaps this week we will also have feedback.
  

LAST WEEK’S TEAM



THE SECRET OF MY SUCCESS

… the highest scorer of each gameweek in our league is invited to share a few insights into what got them so many points… last week’s highest scorer was Ross Herlihy, and man behind the Life Styles Festival, who got 99 points, which for context was about 160% of the average score which was 57, which was just outside the top 15,000 scorers in the world this past gameweek… Ross shares the secret of his success here...

The secret to my success was desperation! I'm in a few different leagues but like most people I have one that I pay the most attention to, and after winning it last year I'm now 97 points behind first place. The last few weeks were torture with injuries, suspensions, captains not playing and then coming off the bench late in games and racking up 2 points so I put it all behind me, new year, wild card, new team!

Last week and this coming week are obviously 2 important weeks of double games. I figured a lot of people would be playing 3 chelsea players and maybe 1 Southampton players, and since I'm in need of differential points I took a punt on 3 SH and only 2 chelsea players to have some spare money for other decent players. I didn't want to get overly Double week obsessed either as that could be a waste of a wild card and hinder me later. Mata, Ba & Lambert have all been playing well this season and have been in and out of my squad at different stages. I've had Clyne most of the season and think he's great value and Shaw will probably leave my team before Man Utd in GM24.

The biggest question was to captain Mata or Ba, especially since Benitez loves a bit of rotation! I went for Mata in the end figuring that others in my league might have brought Ba and captained him hoping he got off the a flying start. Luck was on my side this week!


Ross's team selection was the following...



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TRANSFERS

There’s a lot of fellas walking round online this week, who used their wildcard last gameweek, and seem to have taken on the wisdom of a 13 year old who have just kissed for the first time telling those who hadn’t yet what to do! [I don’t meet Ross there, I mean in general, ooops]. So I’ve decided that I want to do it too, sounds great to have that excitement leading up to the weekend after spending the whole week lonely and online… shit, has that metaphor veered dangerously close to a painful truth?

So I’ve just launched in and made a swathe of changes and yet kept the few big hitters – RVP, Michu, Baines etc. At least I’ve a lot to write about now

Goalkeeper, kept Jaaskelainen (double GW) and brought in Begovic, their fixtures for next couple of weeks dovetail very well.

Moving further up the pitch I’ve loaded up on double gameweekers, with 2 West Ham defenders, (possibly O’Brien won’t play both but I hope he will pull himself together since Collins is out too, hence also bringing in Tompkins while Mr C is absent), I’ve stuck with Cameron and Baines as I had them already and I’ve brought in the Swansea ‘sensation’ Davies [as mentioned by Darragh on this week’s podcast – did I mention we have a podcast?

Midfield, I decided to show Walters my moral support, if I could tussle his hair in person I would, but I can’t so spending 6.6million is the best I can do, but I am not using him this week but instead focussing on his hame game to Wigan in GM24. I’ve gone against percieved wisdom here with the double gameweek but I’ve brought in Walcott AND Wilshire, simply because if I keep making the safe moves, I’ll never overtake anyone, and let’s not kid myself it’s not like Walcott is some great curveball decision. Michu and Fellani won’t win me any awards for creativity either.

Finally up front, I’ve spotted this fella under the radar called Robin Van Persie, and also brought in Lambert & Lukaku, the former has more consistency and the latter might just be bubbling into a great run of form.

I think all told, I should get 3 good gameweeks here with minimal jiggery pokery.


THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

I write this with the weather seeming to have postponed none of the matches, if Arsenal or West Ham get cancelled, I will be floootered.

It’s all about the subs really, I’m essentially taking as many people as I have involved with the Swansea v Stoke game out of the equation, like a sort of conscientious objector. Mainly because the success of any of my number 12, 13, 14, or 15 will be at the expense of one of the opposition. A tame reason I know, but one I have slept on easily.



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MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

Walcott with Wilshire as the Ryker to his Picard.*

*I think that I write a blog about fantasy football decisions, and use Star Trek characters as imagery might explain the lonliness I referred to earlier….


And now over to Darragh who resides in…

CAPTAIN’S CORNER

Well I guess that went reasonably well…right? Mata made me look like a wight mug by doing the complete opposite of my predictions and demolishing a ‘stout’ Stoke home defense and doing nada against the Saints. Onwards and ever so slightly upwards I shall look though and gadzooks, it’s another double gameweek!  This will inevitably melt my already dwindling mental capacities but I’ve come up with a plan. Last week I resisted the temptation to spooge points like a Tony Fernandes wage budget and ultimately paid the cost. This week, I’ll have more Gunners than a middle eastern….I’ll stop right there.

So you can’t get far into this gameweek without discussing the Walcott/Cazorla debate. Except of late, it’s not much of a debate. The former offers a distinctly more direct route to points through his role as a striker, as long a Giroud remains mildly crocked. And heeeerrreee come the stats….. In the last 6 gameweeks, Theo has held the 3rd highest penalty area touches (27), behind FF wunderkinds such as Silva and Fellaini (30 and 31 respectively). Here’s where its gets really pro-Walcott though. No midfielder in the Premier League has held a higher pitch position average in the last 8 games as Walcott, with only Fellaini occupying the same pitch quadrant as him. Similarly, his 22.1 mins per chance over the last 6 weeks is only eclipsed by the incumbent fantasy started Gareth Bale. This is all while costing 0.4 less than his Spanish team mate. Furthermore, West Ham just shipped 3 against the impotent Sunderland attack and should be missing three defensive starters in Joey O’Brien, James Collins and Linda McCartney.

If you’ve been stung by DGWs in the past and want to stay as far away from them as Joey Barton from the general publics good graces, then Man Citeh offer a hugely profitable route this week. Defensively, I fancy Kolarov or Zabaleta to offer a plethora of returns against a frankly pathetic Fulham side when away from home. Before their win against WBA, they had not won away from home since Wigan in GW5. Berbatov, as always, is about as inconsistent as my similes and I fancy the Blues to not only keep a cleaner, but for the full backs to offer returns.

With this in mind, I fancy the Serbian left back to get a start and pepper the Fulham backline with long range belters. My main City player for the week is definitely Dzeko though. He’s in my ‘Spine’ on the BOTNB podcast competition and offers ridiculous value at 7.4 if only until Aguero returns. Like I mentioned on the podcast, his 86 mins per goal rivals RVP’s and desolates any other forward over the last 6 weeks. His conversion rate (21.1%) lies just behind the Dutchman’s and surprisingly, Romelu Lukaku’s as well (both at 22.2%) but his 18.1 mins per chance is the best in the league over the past month and a half.

Elsewhere, the ever present Uruguayan is back in the fore with a home fixture against the side he has twice buried hat-tricks against of late. Suarez comes into this game with his usual mind boggling, knee weakening stats. In the last 6 weeks, he’s 12 short of being a 100 clear in terms of final third touches than his nearest forward competitor (Benteke) and has 80 oppositional penalty area touches whilst his nearest competitor languishes on 57 (Kenwyne Jones). His 37 attempts on goal in that time is 6 more than RVP (I’ll just compare everything against him) in the same time frame but as we all know, Suarez is a continuous gamble, particularly with the emergence of Sturridge. Will he continue to have the same level of involvement with the body-poppin’ prodigy going through the centre? I tend to think not. But as for this week, it’s difficult to look past El Pistolero’s credentials.

Finally, I’ll touch on two other members of the ‘Power 5’ midfield. Both Michu and Fellaini have maintained scintillating form thus far but surely one will have to drop off, right? If either of these will, I’m beginning to the think the Spaniard will. His last 3 GWs have seen him sit deeper and deeper, culminating in his first average game position being stationed in his own half. Fellaini on the other hand seems to be continuously eeking further forward as Jellyfish continues to struggle for goals. Michu has a disturbingly high conversion rate to date. While he has a 21% conversion rate, similarly high scoring midfielders such as Mata, Fellaini, Hazard, Cazorla and Gerrard have rates of 15.6%, 14.8%, 13.6%, 11.1% and 8.9% respectively. Whilst this initially may look appealing, conversion rates have a tendency to regress to the mean over time, with the mean usually being around the 14% mark for midfielders. Whether Michu can keep this exceptionally high rate up is doubtful (he was at a 26.4% conversion rate 5 GWs ago) is doubtful, so wildcarders beware. He’ll remain in my thoughts for this week, purely for “I told you so’s” if nothing else. There’s simply no way this can backfire……

Captains Choices:                     Last Weeks Choices::

Walcott                             Mata (16pts)
Dzeko                               van Persie (6 pts)
Suarez                              Dzeko (5pts)
Fellaini                            Berbatov (2pts)
Kolarov                           Fellaini (3pts)

Punt: C.Brunt                                  Ramirez (7pts)
                                              (6.5 points per player)


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Friday, January 11, 2013

Gameweek 22 Season 2012/2013


So things have just gone from slightly shit to really shit at Camp Ronan in last few weeks, over the Christmas period – Oh yeah, happy new year one and all, I hope you all had a good time and all that – I have suffered the ignominy of dropping to the second page of my own league [I hope I don’t have to use the adage ‘out of my league’ at some poin

To catch up to the top 20 of my league is probably unlikely this season, so my eyes will be on the weekly and monthly prizes now. Those prizes are pints, which is possbily the reason I’ve stalled so much this season… catch-up 22?

I’ve been sick all week too (this is my first time sitting at my desk since Tuesday) and I’m just trying to play catch up – we were supposed to start podcasting this week too but that’ll be all next week. Perhaps I should postpone all my new years plans to the chinese one? With that in mind Darragh has really carried the can for this week’s blog. My notes are written in a paracetamol induced haze (Sergeant Sliothar? I thought it was hilarious at the time).

Everyone knows I should use my wildcard immediately but I’d not make optimum use of this week, so I’ve just gone with one which I’ll explain later.

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS

As 4 gameweeks have passed since last update, I don’t have much to add except nothing went my way and I just slipped away from the pack. In GM 21 I scored the exact average like, I’m living in the identikit legohouse of surburbia of fantasy football.

WHAT’S THE POINTS

Points scored last week                       - 52 Points
Average points scored in that week      - 52 points
Points off the top                                 - 248 points, a further 81 points since christmas.
Position in BOTNB League                - 62th (down 23 places   L x 23 )

LAST WEEK’S TEAM

 

TRANSFERS

1.4 million to play with

Like pretty much everyone else I’ve been drawn to Villa’s home game to Southamton, so I’ve brough in Bentenke at the expense of Peter Crouch; but if this is true [and I pray to sweet divine jeebus that it is, Peter Crouch doesn’t even pick himself at the moment - http://fantasy.premierleague.com/my-leagues/264748/standings/



THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

I’m going with Schwarzer in goal (at home to Wigan) over Jaaskelainen (away to Sunderland) so the latter gets the number 12 jersey, I’ve also dropped his team mates Collins to number 15, and Nolan to 13. Sitting in between them will be Cameron who is at home to Stoke.

I believe Sidwell will be fit (I read it, so must be true), but I wonder will I switch Brunt out and Bring in Nolan to start

Here’s the screenshot.



MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

It’s gonna be one of my front three, Torres has the two games and should start both… so I’m erring towards him now even though I think I’ll be pushing him out the door next week too.


And now over to Darragh who has done all the work this week…

CAPTAIN’S CORNER

Euy, so that was intense. More football matches than diamonds on Messi’s Ballon D’Or suit prevented me from straying too far from the RVP safety net over the festivities. January appears to be much of the same as Fantasy Football meltdowns aplenty are on the horizon after the announcement of two double gameweeks in the next two….eh….. gameweeks. High levels of rotation have made statistics a bit more difficult to unravel so if in doubt, lob all your proverbial eggs into the basket of van Persie.

Elsewhere, this week offers us a bounty of Chelsea options as the face a back 4 that are about as stable as an middle eastern government in Southampton. Granted they face a stout Stoke at the Britania 4 days earlier but assuming he doesn’t get ‘Shawcrossed’, Juan Mata surely the most stable of the Blues options. Indeed, Chelsea have failed to win all 6 games he hasn’t started this year, a stat that hopefully makes him immune from susceptibility to Rafa Rotation. He created a whopping 27 assists in 2012, the second highest in Europe’s Top 5 leagues (behind Memut Ozil on 29) and looks to continue the trend in 2013, setting the joint highest total (with David Silva) for successful passes (23) in the final third of the pitch in 2013’s only gameweek thus far.

As with any Chelsea attacking option this week, anything above 2 points taken from the Stoke fixture will be viewed as a bonus. Mata is possibly the least likely to suffer from rotation as Hazard, Oscar, Lampard, Marin and Moses duke it out for the other two attacking roles. Defensive options mainly lie at the Afro-Backside duo of David Luiz and Ivanovic but perhaps neither are worthy of the armband given Stoke’s home form.

Elsewhere, It’s the gameweek of the budget forward. While RvP has hit the £14 million mark, I’ve taking the Tesco value approach and lumped together 2 budget forwards whose combined value barely surpasses that of the Dutchman. Edin Dzeko faces a crumbly Arsenal back four that has conceded 10 in their last 5 home games. Aguero’s hammy and Balotelli’s training ground handbags make the Bosnian’s chances of starting around about the highest they’ve been all season. Dzeko tends not to waste too much time either. In terms of minutes per goal attempt, he ranks behind only fellow super sub Javier Hernandez (16.8 mins per attempt) and Johnny shoot/dive/insult/bite/racial slur-a-lot Luis Saurez (13.8 mins per attempt) in the last 6 gameweeks.

I’m also taking a lazy, meandering punt on Dimital Berbatov this week. Since his goalless 7 game haul induced by his Bryan Ruiz withdrawal symptoms, Uncle Bulgaria has repaid owners with 2 goals and an assist in his last three. Wigan could have some guy named Ivan Ramis (wasn’t he in Ghostbusters?) marking him this Saturday and coupled with Ruiz’s continued return to match fitness, it could all ensure high returns for the mercurial forward this weekend.

I can’t get through another blog without going for my weekly dose of Everton man love. When he’s not head butting hatchetmen (sorry Shawcross fans, he’s getting a doing today), Fellaini offers fantasy value like few midfielders. The fact that in 25% of the games he’s started he’s maintained a level or higher average pitch position to Jelavic shows his continued importance to the Toffees attack. He dominates the Croat in almost every stat department, maintaining a higher average shot per game ratio (3.2 to 2.6), created chances (1.4 to 1.1), successful dribble (1.6 to 1.4) and percentage of goal involvement (39.3% to 26.6%). Long story short, if you’re looking for Everton attack cover, go with the fro’.

My top fantasy football captain options this week are:

1.    Juan Mata - (a) Stoke (h) Southampton
2.    Robin van Persie - (h) Liverpool
3.    Edin Dzeko - (a) Arsenal
4.    Dimital Berbatov - (h) Wigan
5.    Marouane Fellaini – (h) Swansea

Punt Option: Gaston Ramirez – (a) Aston Villa (a) Chelsea