Gameweek 23 Season 2012/2013

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Hey hey hey! So it’s been a productive week here at BOTNB HQ, I feel like Bayern Munich in the sense that we’ve announced and got new plans under way for the future if not immediate term (but I am aware they are still capable of winning all the competitions they are in)…

Basically we have finally started podcasting, we won’t be pushing it massively for 3 or so episodes but to ye the regular followers already you can find it via the www.facebook.com/backofthenetboy facebook page or http://backofthenetboy.podomatic.com/entry/2013-01-17T15_01_10-08_00, I am still learning the ropes of getting it up via iTunes, apparently it takes a few days, so you can subscribe to it as of next time I hope.

Also got a brand new competion up and running, all there on FB page too, called the ‘Spine’… better name needed. But it is really exciting me anyway. Keep tooooooooooned folks, but let’s get back to the case in point…

REVIEW OF NEW CORK COSMOS IN GAMEWEEK 22

Another shi*storm of a gameweek, this time getting substantially less than half of the highest score and about 50% less than the bloody average. The only good point I can find is that I’ve slipped down into 69th position…. in-your-endo

WHAT’S THE POINTS

Points scored last week                       - 40 Points

Average points scored in that week      - 57 points

Points off the top                                 - 297 points, a further 49 points since christmas.

Position in BOTNB League                - 69th (down another 7 places   L x 7 )

My only defence for the omnishambles of last gameweek is my defence, those 3 guys who went out there scored nearly ½ the points the whole team accrued. All my midfielders scored 2 points, seriously like, many midfielders managed to get 8 points on their own. Forwards equally bad, sure you can look at it yourself…

Apparently my Bentenke kicked off some ‘internet banter’ comments on the blog last Friday, but was deleted so perhaps this week we will also have feedback.

  

LAST WEEK’S TEAM

THE SECRET OF MY SUCCESS

… the highest scorer of each gameweek in our league is invited to share a few insights into what got them so many points… last week’s highest scorer was Ross Herlihy, and man behind the Life Styles Festival, who got 99 points, which for context was about 160% of the average score which was 57, which was just outside the top 15,000 scorers in the world this past gameweek… Ross shares the secret of his success here...

The secret to my success was desperation! I'm in a few different leagues but like most people I have one that I pay the most attention to, and after winning it last year I'm now 97 points behind first place. The last few weeks were torture with injuries, suspensions, captains not playing and then coming off the bench late in games and racking up 2 points so I put it all behind me, new year, wild card, new team!

Last week and this coming week are obviously 2 important weeks of double games. I figured a lot of people would be playing 3 chelsea players and maybe 1 Southampton players, and since I'm in need of differential points I took a punt on 3 SH and only 2 chelsea players to have some spare money for other decent players. I didn't want to get overly Double week obsessed either as that could be a waste of a wild card and hinder me later. Mata, Ba & Lambert have all been playing well this season and have been in and out of my squad at different stages. I've had Clyne most of the season and think he's great value and Shaw will probably leave my team before Man Utd in GM24.

The biggest question was to captain Mata or Ba, especially since Benitez loves a bit of rotation! I went for Mata in the end figuring that others in my league might have brought Ba and captained him hoping he got off the a flying start. Luck was on my side this week!

Ross's team selection was the following...

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TRANSFERS

There’s a lot of fellas walking round online this week, who used their wildcard last gameweek, and seem to have taken on the wisdom of a 13 year old who have just kissed for the first time telling those who hadn’t yet what to do! [I don’t meet Ross there, I mean in general, ooops]. So I’ve decided that I want to do it too, sounds great to have that excitement leading up to the weekend after spending the whole week lonely and online… shit, has that metaphor veered dangerously close to a painful truth?

So I’ve just launched in and made a swathe of changes and yet kept the few big hitters – RVP, Michu, Baines etc. At least I’ve a lot to write about now

Goalkeeper, kept Jaaskelainen (double GW) and brought in Begovic, their fixtures for next couple of weeks dovetail very well.

Moving further up the pitch I’ve loaded up on double gameweekers, with 2 West Ham defenders, (possibly O’Brien won’t play both but I hope he will pull himself together since Collins is out too, hence also bringing in Tompkins while Mr C is absent), I’ve stuck with Cameron and Baines as I had them already and I’ve brought in the Swansea ‘sensation’ Davies [as mentioned by Darragh on this week’s podcast – did I mention we have a podcast?

Midfield, I decided to show Walters my moral support, if I could tussle his hair in person I would, but I can’t so spending 6.6million is the best I can do, but I am not using him this week but instead focussing on his hame game to Wigan in GM24. I’ve gone against percieved wisdom here with the double gameweek but I’ve brought in Walcott AND Wilshire, simply because if I keep making the safe moves, I’ll never overtake anyone, and let’s not kid myself it’s not like Walcott is some great curveball decision. Michu and Fellani won’t win me any awards for creativity either.

Finally up front, I’ve spotted this fella under the radar called Robin Van Persie, and also brought in Lambert & Lukaku, the former has more consistency and the latter might just be bubbling into a great run of form.

I think all told, I should get 3 good gameweeks here with minimal jiggery pokery.

THIS WEEK’S SELECTION

I write this with the weather seeming to have postponed none of the matches, if Arsenal or West Ham get cancelled, I will be floootered.

It’s all about the subs really, I’m essentially taking as many people as I have involved with the Swansea v Stoke game out of the equation, like a sort of conscientious objector. Mainly because the success of any of my number 12, 13, 14, or 15 will be at the expense of one of the opposition. A tame reason I know, but one I have slept on easily.

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MY CAPTAIN, MY CAPTAIN

Walcott with Wilshire as the Ryker to his Picard.*

*I think that I write a blog about fantasy football decisions, and use Star Trek characters as imagery might explain the lonliness I referred to earlier….

And now over to Darragh who resides in…

CAPTAIN’S CORNER

Well I guess that went reasonably well…right? Mata made me look like a wight mug by doing the complete opposite of my predictions and demolishing a ‘stout’ Stoke home defense and doing nada against the Saints. Onwards and ever so slightly upwards I shall look though and gadzooks, it’s another double gameweek!  This will inevitably melt my already dwindling mental capacities but I’ve come up with a plan. Last week I resisted the temptation to spooge points like a Tony Fernandes wage budget and ultimately paid the cost. This week, I’ll have more Gunners than a middle eastern….I’ll stop right there.

So you can’t get far into this gameweek without discussing the Walcott/Cazorla debate. Except of late, it’s not much of a debate. The former offers a distinctly more direct route to points through his role as a striker, as long a Giroud remains mildly crocked. And heeeerrreee come the stats….. In the last 6 gameweeks, Theo has held the 3rd highest penalty area touches (27), behind FF wunderkinds such as Silva and Fellaini (30 and 31 respectively). Here’s where its gets really pro-Walcott though. No midfielder in the Premier League has held a higher pitch position average in the last 8 games as Walcott, with only Fellaini occupying the same pitch quadrant as him. Similarly, his 22.1 mins per chance over the last 6 weeks is only eclipsed by the incumbent fantasy started Gareth Bale. This is all while costing 0.4 less than his Spanish team mate. Furthermore, West Ham just shipped 3 against the impotent Sunderland attack and should be missing three defensive starters in Joey O’Brien, James Collins and Linda McCartney.

If you’ve been stung by DGWs in the past and want to stay as far away from them as Joey Barton from the general publics good graces, then Man Citeh offer a hugely profitable route this week. Defensively, I fancy Kolarov or Zabaleta to offer a plethora of returns against a frankly pathetic Fulham side when away from home. Before their win against WBA, they had not won away from home since Wigan in GW5. Berbatov, as always, is about as inconsistent as my similes and I fancy the Blues to not only keep a cleaner, but for the full backs to offer returns.

With this in mind, I fancy the Serbian left back to get a start and pepper the Fulham backline with long range belters. My main City player for the week is definitely Dzeko though. He’s in my ‘Spine’ on the BOTNB podcast competition and offers ridiculous value at 7.4 if only until Aguero returns. Like I mentioned on the podcast, his 86 mins per goal rivals RVP’s and desolates any other forward over the last 6 weeks. His conversion rate (21.1%) lies just behind the Dutchman’s and surprisingly, Romelu Lukaku’s as well (both at 22.2%) but his 18.1 mins per chance is the best in the league over the past month and a half.

Elsewhere, the ever present Uruguayan is back in the fore with a home fixture against the side he has twice buried hat-tricks against of late. Suarez comes into this game with his usual mind boggling, knee weakening stats. In the last 6 weeks, he’s 12 short of being a 100 clear in terms of final third touches than his nearest forward competitor (Benteke) and has 80 oppositional penalty area touches whilst his nearest competitor languishes on 57 (Kenwyne Jones). His 37 attempts on goal in that time is 6 more than RVP (I’ll just compare everything against him) in the same time frame but as we all know, Suarez is a continuous gamble, particularly with the emergence of Sturridge. Will he continue to have the same level of involvement with the body-poppin’ prodigy going through the centre? I tend to think not. But as for this week, it’s difficult to look past El Pistolero’s credentials.

Finally, I’ll touch on two other members of the ‘Power 5’ midfield. Both Michu and Fellaini have maintained scintillating form thus far but surely one will have to drop off, right? If either of these will, I’m beginning to the think the Spaniard will. His last 3 GWs have seen him sit deeper and deeper, culminating in his first average game position being stationed in his own half. Fellaini on the other hand seems to be continuously eeking further forward as Jellyfish continues to struggle for goals. Michu has a disturbingly high conversion rate to date. While he has a 21% conversion rate, similarly high scoring midfielders such as Mata, Fellaini, Hazard, Cazorla and Gerrard have rates of 15.6%, 14.8%, 13.6%, 11.1% and 8.9% respectively. Whilst this initially may look appealing, conversion rates have a tendency to regress to the mean over time, with the mean usually being around the 14% mark for midfielders. Whether Michu can keep this exceptionally high rate up is doubtful (he was at a 26.4% conversion rate 5 GWs ago) is doubtful, so wildcarders beware. He’ll remain in my thoughts for this week, purely for “I told you so’s” if nothing else. There’s simply no way this can backfire……

Captains Choices:                     Last Weeks Choices::

Walcott                             Mata (16pts)

Dzeko                               van Persie (6 pts)

Suarez                              Dzeko (5pts)

Fellaini                            Berbatov (2pts)

Kolarov                           Fellaini (3pts)

Punt: C.Brunt                                  Ramirez (7pts)

                                              (6.5 points per player)

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