Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fantasy Football Preview Game Week 5

A terrible week at Len Rovers HQ, getting only 41 points was 10 worse than my previous worst. I need a flash out of the blue to get me out of this mid table mire. And still my son’s novelty team is doing better than me. Have I already started to have father/son projected goals issues.

Vindication
I’ve pretty much nothing to blow my trumpet about from the previous game week. Vidic scoring a goal was handy, not that I expected. But conceding 3 goals was mental. I had what I considered a terrible week, until I saw the other scores on Tuesday and very few people in the Back Of The Net Boy did much better. I got 41 points (worryingly I made 16 points worth of transfers and it didn’t seem to come off my score – if I win this league by 15 points, will I just be like Henry?

D’oh

My main regret this week was the fact was the Man Utd Everton result. Three of my back 4 (Howard, Vidic & Evans (suffered (bar the Vidic goal). Newcastle losing didn’t help; I’d Carroll as my captain. Maybe cos I was at a music festival for the weekend, my team were a lot more lax than they’d normally be when I’d be keeping a close eye on them in Cashman’s Pub on a Saturday.

Hunch

This is not too imaginative, but Drogba is gonna be my captain. He didn’t play yesterday in Chelsea’s goal rout, so he’ll be hungry to get some glory back on his shoulders (is that a phrase? Did I just make up a cliché?). He’ll be at home to Blackpool and I can imagine him like a bad guy in a James Bond film where the underdog hero (Blackpool) is brought to his lair (Stamford Bridge) and the bad guy (Drogba – you’re getting this metaphor yeah?) does the whole I’ve been expecting you shtick… Hang on the underdog always wins yeah. Oops. Ashley Cole was also rested in champions league. So he should play on sat, I’m wary of the Liverpool v Man Utd game, or more specifically Torres v Vidic. It’s been a torrid challenge for Vidic last few seasons, and considering all the flack Torres has got and the fact he didn’t play last night means he could just be primed to explode. That match also signals the return of Joe Cole after suspension (remember he scored the goal last season to essentially win the league for Chelsea)

I’m interested to see if Gareth Bale plays against Wolves at home. Spurs need to pull their socks up in Premier League of course, and Modric is injured so a left handed attacking role could be ripe for the young leek eater but has his kettle boiled over? (it this metaphor the kettle is his form)

Transfers

I’m not gonna use any transfers this week (unless an injury gets announced tomorrow). I’m fearful of less than 10 or 11 players in my team actually making appearances at weekend (Arshavin played last night for instance and the next game is a tough match in stadium light, so Wenger might play all his midfield bruisers instead… Hang on). But it’s a risk I gotta take, because my virtue of saving this transfer, so I carry it over to have 2 next week. After another hectic champions league week, we might have a few knocks etc.

But if I was gonna sign anyone, it’d be Fabregas because like the which ever woman the Kings of Leon wrote that song about, his Sex Is On Fire (but in this case his Sex is his match fitness and form)

Theory/Selection

I just realised, Liverpool and Man City play tonight, I might not be able to do a full blog tomorrow (I have meetings all day with people who put on arts and theatre festivals. Can you believe “they” have no interest in soccer, specifically notional games like this? Philistines. Anyway there might be more knocks or injuries after. I’m hoping Man City play well tonight and win handsomely, so they’ll be lax against Wigan, so Cleverly (4.5 folk, got an assist in the 14 mins he played on his debut) might make something happen.

Arrgh Carroll & Nolan away to Everton, they’ll be on a high after last week’s result; that’ll be another travesty of Len Rovers.

Drogba captain is a shoe in though

My Team this week

1: Howard Newcastle (H)
2: Samba Fulham (H)
3: Evans J Liverpool (H)
4: Vidic Liverpool (H)
5: Cole A Blackpool (H)
6: Nolan Everton (A)
7: Arshavin Sunderland (A)
8: Cleverly Man City (H)
9: Bale Wigan (H)
10: Malouda Blackpool (H)
11: Drogba (C) Blackpool (H)

12: Jaaskelainen Aston Villa (A)
13: Konchesky Man Utd (A)
14: Doyle Tottenham (A)
15: Carroll Everton (A)

Keeping An Eye On

Torres & Cole, if they start to sparkle might be time to move to them; next two matches after Man Utd game are two home matches in Sunderland and Blackpool

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Guest Blogger For Fantasy Football

A good good friend of Back Of The Net Boy has written this week's blog. Even though he works for the company known as anti-beamish, he's a good guy and knows his stuff

Here you go, edit away if you like.

Fixtures

A key aspect of the game is playing according to fixtures and is essential if you want to top your private leagues. If you pay no attention to fixtures other than to pick your captain, you will fall behind. I tend to look for a run of 3/4 good fixtures for a team and load up on their players according to how good the fixtures are. I also keep an eye on all the future fixtures so i can have a vague plan for gradually bringing in these players in time for the good run without having to take precious points hits. Chelsea undoubtedly had the best starting run of fixtures and people that had drogba, malouda, etc. were duly rewarded. Arsenal's starting fixtures are also great and people with arshavin, walcott (now injured) will be pleased. At the moment i have loaded up on spurs players bale, crouch (now that defoe is injured) and dawson (also injured :( ) and am hoping for big returns from west brom, wolves and west ham. of course home advantage is also a huge factor, any look at stats will show you how better teams perform at home. A run of 3 home fixtures is always tempting, especially for defenders. A common tactic with keepers is to pick them according to fixtures that "match" i.e. when one plays away, the other home and you can play a home keeper every week. There's a thorough keeper combo analysis on this page: http://totalfpl.com/ under community articles, check it out.

It's quite painful trying to look at all the fixtures in one go, to spot good runs with the regular fixture tables, but luckily there's plenty of FF nerds that have done the hard work for you and made season tickers that plot the seasons fixtures and grade according to difficulty, check this before you make any changes to your team and plan early.

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/fpl-fixtures-and-results-grid-2010-11-t74462.html (updated weekly with new difficulty gradings based on current table standings)

Also essential to keep abreast of are the sacred double gameweeks where a team will play two matches in one gameweek. These tend to become more frequent after christmas when fixture schedules get complicated with FA cup, etc. and weather starts to cancel a few matches (remember the chaos last year?) if you spot a nice double gameweek coming up like two home matches against weaker opposition then of course try to get to that gameweek with 3 of those players. The earlier you know about it, the easier you can get these players in without points hits.

so final picks from me for good runs: Fulham up to GW11, spurs for the next few weeks, arsenal have westham (H), Newcastle (H) and wolves (A) starting in GW10 so load up on them and finally man city have decent fixtures for the next 7 weeks apart from arsenal and chelsea, but they are both at home so not that bad either.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Fantasy Football Preview Game Week 3

Overview
A terrible week at Len Rovers HQ, getting only 51 points was terrible. Have slipped to 42nd in our league, such a low spot is sated somewhat due to the Douglas Adams’s connotations. (For a sense of context; my novelty team I have put together for my 7-week-old son did better than me for second week in a row.)


Vindication
Captaining Arshavin was my only piece of work last week, in fact he got 40% of my score. But even saying that, more than 30 players scored more points than Arshavin last week. I am getting more disappointed as I type that last sentence.

I’ve nothing else to bring to the table on this front this week.

D’oh

My main regret this week was the fact that, my captain aside, my subs bench (4 players) accrued more points than the rest of the first team (10 players). I go on and on about making decisions based on numbers than fame, and those numbers don’t add up well for me at all.

1) The team delivered so little; my second highest scorer was 6 points. Last week’s theory “My back 6 (even allowing for my fear of Fulham nicking a goal or two against United) conceivably should pull 30-32 points. Handy foundation for a good game week score”, kicked me in the face. Fulham did indeed nick 2 goals, and my back 6 delivered a whopping 17 points.

2) My other theory “Doubt Bale will play due to his exertions on Tuesday, but actually maybe Redknapp can’t drop him due to his great play on Sat against Man City. Nah it’s Stoke away for him, they’re tight and will probably try and shackle him” also decided to bite me in the ass. He scored 2 points short of my entire defence. D’OHHH

Silver Lining
At least I didn't have a defender at the end of 1 6-0 drubbing or a player who missed a penalty though!

This Weeks Hunch

This week my hunches need to not be desperate lunges at making up lost points, so I’ve decided to go against my usual rule of NEVER EVER EVER making transfers to cost 4/8/12 points, but my gut told me, I had to bring in Drogba straight away, and plonk my captain’s armband on him, so…

Transfers

Arteta replaced by Nolan
Essien replaced by Huddlestone
Berbatov replaced by Drogba
These transfers will deduct the following points from your total: 4

By virtue of needing to bring Drogba in I had to drop Berbatov to have the kitty money and then Essien due to needing to balance the books for how many Chelsea players I have in the team, I brought in Nolan, who is classed as a midfielder, even though he plays behind Carroll upfront, and got 2 goals last week. Also since he is part of the trio who ‘lead’ the team with Alan Smith and Joey Barton, and all three are considered ‘undroppable’. I still need to make another .7 million, so I decided to drop sell Arteta to get in Huddlestone. (2 reasons. 1: Spurs have a great run of fixtures coming up, Everton have a wounded Villa and hungry Man Utd on their radar. 2: 2.5 million price difference)

Theory/Selection

Drogba captain is a shoe in. Am going with no Everton players in back 6, and once again it is not impossible all 6 of my defenders & keepers will score points. (Ivanovic is apparently carrying a knock, so hopefully Ferreira will play the full 90 minutes). I am hoping Wolves/Newcastle will be a high score draw, with both my interests being involved. Also am saying a novena that Wigan’s bad form continues, and that Huddlestone and Bale have a field day.

Not too keen on Blackburn/Arsenal match, but ‘these are the matches Arsenal will need to start to win if they want to win the league etc etc etc’, so Arshavin should have something to say about that.

My Team this week

1: Jaaskelainen Birmingham (H)
2: Ferreira Stoke City (H)
3: Evans J West Ham (H)
4: Vidic West Ham (H)
5: Cole A Stoke City (H)
6: Nolan Wolves (A)
7: Arshavin Blackburn (A)
8: Huddlestone Wigan (H)
9: Bale Wigan (H)
10: Drogba (C) Stoke City (H)
11: Doyle Newcastle (H)

12: Howard Aston Villa (A)
13: Petrov Birmingham (H)
14: Jagielka Aston Villa (A)
15: Campbell Man City (H)

Keeping An Eye On

Diouf, the (on loan from Man Utd) Blackburn striker who scored a hat trick in the Carling Cup, very cheap at moment, so let’s see how he does. But apparently Blackburn are very close to signing Muntari as well, which would limit Diouf’s first team chances. Looking at N’Gog too, looks like a first teamer now, very cheap.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Fantasy Football Preview Week 2

only 58 points last week, not terrible, but i reckon 65 to 70 points a week needs to be the average to win this year. we've a strong league this year.

Vindication
So while everyone who took a gamble on Drogba was happy with how it pay off handsomely: I'm still happy with my decision as captain, I thought that Berbatov was due to come to form worked too. Now I reckon he’ll stay in good run of form and certainly stay in first team (Rooney is unquestionably gone off the boil, and hasn’t had a true break since last August). I’ve the feeling while Fergie will blood the noobs, he’ll still go with an experienced leader of the line. But having said that I won’t make him my captain this week, due to the fact it’s an away match to Fulham (a fixture that’s been a boogey team in recent years for the Red Devils), and it’s just always better to captain a player at home. There you go that’s fate tempted

- Also happy that I didn’t go with Howard as keeper. Once again having a keeper playing at home is a good trend. I still don’t know why professional players consistently play better at home, but who am I to judge I can barely play well in kickabouts.

D’oh

1) Main regret has gotta be Arshavin not performing, even when Liverpool were down to ten men. I’m trying to think of the last great, sexy performance he had actually, but I’ll stick with him this week due to Nasri injury (out for a month) and Fabregas not being expected to play, so he should still be the fulcrum of the attack, and it’s at home to Blackpool (who are second in the league!).

2) Everton’s traditional slow start to the season, also meant Arteta only picked up 2 points, but hopefully he’ll turn that around this week. Baines was pick earner last season, helped massively by his set piece assists, but the 19th best Spanish midfielder in the world will be taking them when he plays.

3) Ferreira coming off after 59 minutes was a kick in the baby making parts, and getting booked means he got my zero points. Another minute on the pitch would have got me 5 points. I also fear he mightn’t play this week due to Ivanovic both replacing him and coming back to fitness. (Ancelotti tried to buy him when at Milan, so it shows he rates him)

Hunch

1) For reasons stated 10 lines ago, I’m going with Arshavin as captain. He should be very involved in game and once again the playing at home factor should help.

2) Going with 5 man back line, I have had to drop Petrov, cos maybe West Ham will pull it together while hosting Bolton. He is my 12th man, and perhaps with Sunderland signing Wellbeck, Mister Bruce might want to blood him straight away, ergo dropping Frazier Campbell, but the flipside to that is Frazier might decide to try and stamp his authority.

Theory/Selection

My back 6 (even allowing for my fear of Fulham nicking a goal or two against United) conceivably should pull 30-32 points. Handy foundation for a good game week score.

Doubt Bale will play due to his exertions on Tuesday, but actually maybe Redknapp can’t drop him due to his great play on Sat against Man City. Nah it’s Stoke away for him, they’re tight and will probably try and shackle him

Transfers

Doing none this week, so that I’ve 2 to play with next week. I’ve 1.5 million to play with and if Ireland comes good straight out of the trap(-atoninis!), I might bring him and Malouda in next week.

My Team this week
(Bearing in mind I catch a ferry to Wales in 4 hours, I’ve no chance to change this)

1: Howard
2: Ferreira
3: Jagielka
4: Evans J
5: Vidic
6: Cole A
7: Arteta
8: Arshavin (C)
9: Essien
10: Berbatov
11: Campbell

12: Jaaskelainen
13: Petrov
14: Bale
15: Doyle